Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Gesias Cavalcante
King Green
37%
63%
Why
71"
Reach
71"
28
Age
Δ 3y
25
L1
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Gesias Cavalcante
King Green
20
Sig strikes landed
35
61
Sig strikes attempted
67
50
Total strikes landed
56
2.9
Takedowns landed
1.7
6.7
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
254s
Control time
61s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Gesias Cavalcante
"JZ"
21-10-1
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 0-1
Last 1
L
Strikeforce - Diaz vs. Noons 2
—
Blue corner
King Green
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25