Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Scott Smith
Tarec Saffiedine
33%
67%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 0"
70"
32
Age
Δ 7y
25
18-12
Career record
Δ 7 pp
16-8
L2
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Smith: 21 sig / 0 TD ·
Saffiedine: 113 sig / 0 TD
Scott Smith
Tarec Saffiedine
34
Sig strikes landed
40
91
Sig strikes attempted
88
42
Total strikes landed
53
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.6
Takedowns attempted
0.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.70
119s
Control time
73s
Method
Decision
19%
KO/TKO
60%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Scott Smith
"Hands of Steel"
18-12
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
Strikeforce - Henderson vs. Bab…
—
L
Strikeforce - Fedor vs. Werdum
—
Blue corner
L1
Tarec Saffiedine
"Sponge"
16-8
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
25
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
Strikeforce Challengers 13
—
W
Strikeforce Challengers 8
—
W
Strikeforce Challengers 6
—