Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Paul Daley
Tyron Woodley
85%
15%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
28
Age
Δ 1y
29
39-16-2
Career record
Δ 3 pp
20-7-1
L1
Current streak
W3
2
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Daley: 21 sig / 0 TD ·
Woodley: 20 sig / 2 TD
Paul Daley
Tyron Woodley
25
Sig strikes landed
32
73
Sig strikes attempted
79
35
Total strikes landed
34
2.3
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.6
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
123s
Control time
46s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Paul Daley
"Semtex"
39-16-2
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
Strikeforce - Diaz vs. Daley
—
W
Strikeforce - Henderson vs. Bab…
—
Blue corner
W3
Tyron Woodley
"The Chosen One"
20-7-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
Strikeforce Challengers 13
—
W
Strikeforce - Diaz vs. Noons 2
—
W
Strikeforce Challengers 8
—