Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rory MacDonald
Mike Pyle
82%
18%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
22
Age
Δ 14y
36
20-4
Career record
Δ 18 pp
28-14-1
W1
Current streak
W3
3
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
MacDonald: 24 sig / 0 TD ·
Pyle: 3 sig / 2 TD
Rory MacDonald
Mike Pyle
33
Sig strikes landed
28
77
Sig strikes attempted
70
48
Total strikes landed
53
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.6
4.2
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
204s
Control time
100s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Rory MacDonald
"Red King"
20-4
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—
L
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
W3
Mike Pyle
"Quicksand"
28-14-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
W
UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama
—
W
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—
L
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
—