Prelims1
Light Heavyweight
Matt Hamill vs Alexander Gustafsson
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
·Xfinity Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Matt Hamill
Alexander Gustafsson
25%
75%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 3"
79"
35
Age
Δ 10y
25
12-9
Career record
Δ 13 pp
19-8
L1
Current streak
W2
3
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Hamill: 13 sig / 0 TD ·
Gustafsson: 37 sig / 0 TD
Matt Hamill
Alexander Gustafsson
22
Sig strikes landed
35
64
Sig strikes attempted
83
35
Total strikes landed
48
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.1
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
97s
Control time
140s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Matt Hamill
"The Hammer"
12-9
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—
W
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lidd…
—
Blue corner
W2
Alexander Gustafsson
"The Mauler"
19-8
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
—
W
UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama
—
L
UFC 112: Invincible
—