Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Chad Mendes
Rani Yahya
50%
50%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 1"
67"
26
Age
Δ 1y
27
19-5
Career record
Δ 10 pp
29-12-1
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Mendes: 35 sig / 5 TD ·
Yahya: 15 sig / 0 TD
Chad Mendes
Rani Yahya
42
Sig strikes landed
39
96
Sig strikes attempted
101
71
Total strikes landed
61
1.7
Takedowns landed
1.6
5.5
Takedowns attempted
5.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
188s
Control time
114s
Method
Decision
80%
KO/TKO
8%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Chad Mendes
"Money"
19-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
—
Blue corner
W1
Rani Yahya
29-12-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—