Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mike Brown
Nam Phan
71%
29%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
36
Age
Δ 8y
28
26-10
Career record
Δ 18 pp
21-18
L2
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Brown: 60 sig / 5 TD ·
Phan: 38 sig / 0 TD
Mike Brown
Nam Phan
77
Sig strikes landed
57
168
Sig strikes attempted
129
107
Total strikes landed
108
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.9
10.3
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
271s
Control time
108s
Method
Decision
74%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Mike Brown
26-10
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
L
UFC 125: Resolution
—
Blue corner
L1
Nam Phan
21-18
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP …
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