Prelims2
Welterweight
Johny Hendricks vs Mike Pierce
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
·Xfinity Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Johny Hendricks
Mike Pierce
52%
48%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
28
Age
Δ 3y
31
19-8
Career record
Δ 2 pp
18-7
W1
Current streak
W3
4
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Hendricks: 54 sig / 1 TD ·
Pierce: 37 sig / 1 TD
Johny Hendricks
Mike Pierce
24
Sig strikes landed
22
50
Sig strikes attempted
52
35
Total strikes landed
43
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.7
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
88s
Control time
204s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Johny Hendricks
"Bigg Rigg"
19-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP …
—
W
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—
W
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—
Blue corner
W3
Mike Pierce
18-7
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
—
W
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2
—
W
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—