Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Rafael Natal
Paul Bradley
46%
54%
Why
29
Age
Δ 0y
28
D1
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Natal: 43 sig / 0 TD ·
Bradley: 13 sig / 3 TD
Rafael Natal
Paul Bradley
27
Sig strikes landed
38
73
Sig strikes attempted
90
46
Total strikes landed
56
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.2
3.6
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
127s
Control time
109s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
D1
Rafael Natal
"Sapo"
21-9-2
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 0-1
Last 2
D
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs P…
—
Blue corner
Paul Bradley
"The Gentleman"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28