Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Derek Brunson
Jeremy Hamilton
79%
21%
Why
28
Age
Δ 1y
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Derek Brunson
Jeremy Hamilton
44
Sig strikes landed
41
111
Sig strikes attempted
98
61
Total strikes landed
62
1.2
Takedowns landed
2.8
1.9
Takedowns attempted
4.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
122s
Control time
124s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
32%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Derek Brunson
"The One"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
Blue corner
Jeremy Hamilton
"Hawk"
0-0
Career record
Age
27