Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Raphael Assuncao
Johnny Eduardo
66%
34%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 4"
71"
29
Age
Δ 4y
33
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Assuncao: 53 sig / 3 TD ·
Eduardo: 28 sig / 0 TD
Raphael Assuncao
Johnny Eduardo
25
Sig strikes landed
32
58
Sig strikes attempted
70
37
Total strikes landed
52
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.7
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
121s
Control time
111s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
29%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Raphael Assuncao
28-11
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
Blue corner
Johnny Eduardo
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33