Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Paulo Thiago
David Mitchell
43%
57%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
76"
31
Age
Δ 1y
32
18-10
Career record
Δ 9 pp
22-8
L2
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Thiago: 19 sig / 6 TD ·
Mitchell: 23 sig / 0 TD
Paulo Thiago
David Mitchell
23
Sig strikes landed
25
43
Sig strikes attempted
37
44
Total strikes landed
43
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.5
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
122s
Control time
139s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
35%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Paulo Thiago
18-10
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—
L
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—
W
UFC 109: Relentless
—
Blue corner
L1
David Mitchell
"Daudi"
22-8
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs P…
—