Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Rousimar Palhares
Dan Miller
64%
36%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 3"
74"
32
Age
Δ 1y
30
20-8
Career record
Δ 11 pp
14-9
W1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Palhares: 67 sig / 2 TD ·
Miller: 42 sig / 0 TD
Rousimar Palhares
Dan Miller
36
Sig strikes landed
24
83
Sig strikes attempted
73
56
Total strikes landed
36
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.6
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
129s
Control time
204s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Rousimar Palhares
"Toquinho"
20-8
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs P…
—
W
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
—
Blue corner
L1
Dan Miller
14-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
W
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—
W
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2
—
L
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
—
L
UFC 109: Relentless
—