Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Thiago Tavares
Spencer Fisher
71%
29%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
27
Age
Δ 8y
35
21-8-1
Career record
Δ 1 pp
24-10
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Tavares: 10 sig / 3 TD ·
Fisher: 3 sig / 0 TD
Thiago Tavares
Spencer Fisher
34
Sig strikes landed
29
91
Sig strikes attempted
72
55
Total strikes landed
50
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.6
4.5
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
167s
Control time
103s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Thiago Tavares
21-8-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
3 fights · 1-1
Last 3
L
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
—
W
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
L1
Spencer Fisher
"The King"
24-10
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
—
W
UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lidd…
—