Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Iuri Alcantara
Felipe Arantes
79%
21%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
31
Age
Δ 8y
24
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Alcantara: 22 sig / 6 TD ·
Arantes: 29 sig / 0 TD
Iuri Alcantara
Felipe Arantes
35
Sig strikes landed
35
72
Sig strikes attempted
74
51
Total strikes landed
50
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.2
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
146s
Control time
111s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Iuri Alcantara
"Marajo"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
Blue corner
Felipe Arantes
"Sertanejo"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24