Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
Brendan Schaub
79%
21%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 1"
78"
35
Age
Δ 7y
28
34-11-1
Career record
Δ 5 pp
11-5
L1
Current streak
W4
1
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Nogueira: 15 sig / 0 TD ·
Schaub: 11 sig / 0 TD
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
Brendan Schaub
27
Sig strikes landed
33
74
Sig strikes attempted
81
40
Total strikes landed
44
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.7
4.6
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.50
13s
Control time
119s
Method
Decision
17%
KO/TKO
78%
Submission
5%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
"Minotauro"
34-11-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez
—
Blue corner
W4
Brendan Schaub
"Big Brown"
11-5
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
W
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—
W
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
—
W
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—