Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ross Pearson
Edson Barboza
31%
69%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 6"
75"
27
Age
Δ 1y
26
21-16
Career record
Δ 7 pp
25-14
W1
Current streak
W2
3
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Pearson: 60 sig / 0 TD ·
Barboza: 55 sig / 0 TD
Ross Pearson
Edson Barboza
44
Sig strikes landed
46
119
Sig strikes attempted
137
54
Total strikes landed
49
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.2
3.1
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
55s
Control time
130s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Ross Pearson
"The Real Deal"
21-16
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs P…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi
—
Blue corner
W2
Edson Barboza
"Junior"
25-14
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
W
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
—