Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Mauricio Rua
Forrest Griffin
59%
41%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 1"
77"
30
Age
Δ 3y
32
27-15-1
Career record
Δ 11 pp
20-7
L1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Rua: 16 sig / 0 TD ·
Griffin: 3 sig / 0 TD
Mauricio Rua
Forrest Griffin
28
Sig strikes landed
31
75
Sig strikes attempted
95
41
Total strikes landed
58
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.8
Takedowns attempted
4.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
69s
Control time
136s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Mauricio Rua
"Shogun"
27-15-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
W
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—
Blue corner
W1
Forrest Griffin
20-7
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
—