Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Ricardo Lamas
Matt Grice
63%
37%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
29
Age
Δ 1y
30
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Lamas: 16 sig / 1 TD ·
Grice: 6 sig / 0 TD
Ricardo Lamas
Matt Grice
39
Sig strikes landed
35
82
Sig strikes attempted
76
53
Total strikes landed
49
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
121s
Control time
126s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Ricardo Lamas
"The Bully"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner
Matt Grice
"The Real One"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30