Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Nik Lentz
Charles Oliveira
33%
67%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 6"
74"
27
Age
Δ 5y
22
31-12-2
Career record
Δ 7 pp
37-12
W4
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Overturned · Round 2
Lentz: 14 sig / 2 TD ·
Oliveira: 31 sig / 1 TD
Nik Lentz
Charles Oliveira
21
Sig strikes landed
24
45
Sig strikes attempted
55
41
Total strikes landed
38
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.5
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.00
Knockdowns
0.10
232s
Control time
107s
Method
Decision
25%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
60%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Nik Lentz
"The Carny"
31-12-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
5 fights · 4-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—
W
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
—
W
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
L1
Charles Oliveira
"Do Bronxs"
37-12
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs P…
—
W
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
—