Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Michael Johnson
Edward Faaloloto
77%
23%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
25
Age
Δ 2y
27
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Johnson: 27 sig / 1 TD ·
Faaloloto: 17 sig / 0 TD
Michael Johnson
Edward Faaloloto
38
Sig strikes landed
29
80
Sig strikes attempted
62
42
Total strikes landed
41
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.0
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.70
Knockdowns
0.10
107s
Control time
100s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Michael Johnson
"The Menace"
25-21
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP …
—
Blue corner
Edward Faaloloto
0-0
Career record
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27