Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Daniel Roberts
Rich Attonito
69%
31%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
31
Age
Δ 3y
34
15-8
Career record
Δ 3 pp
10-6
L1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Roberts: 23 sig / 1 TD ·
Attonito: 66 sig / 1 TD
Daniel Roberts
Rich Attonito
18
Sig strikes landed
23
60
Sig strikes attempted
63
30
Total strikes landed
39
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.6
4.1
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
146s
Control time
102s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Daniel Roberts
"Ninja"
15-8
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—
W
UFC 125: Resolution
—
W
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—
W
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
—
L
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—
Blue corner
L1
Rich Attonito
"The Raging Bull"
10-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs P…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lidd…
—