Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Joe Stevenson
Javier Vazquez
76%
24%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
29
Age
Δ 5y
34
L3
Current streak
—
3
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Stevenson: 27 sig / 0 TD ·
Vazquez: 62 sig / 3 TD
Joe Stevenson
Javier Vazquez
28
Sig strikes landed
32
66
Sig strikes attempted
67
43
Total strikes landed
49
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.6
4.3
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
158s
Control time
93s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Joe Stevenson
"Daddy"
33-17
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 0-3
Last 3
L
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
—
L
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—
L
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez
—
Blue corner
Javier Vazquez
"Showtime"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34