Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Joe Lauzon
Curt Warburton
63%
37%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
28-17
Career record
Δ 8 pp
14-6
L1
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Lauzon: 12 sig / 0 TD ·
Warburton: 5 sig / 0 TD
Joe Lauzon
Curt Warburton
29
Sig strikes landed
31
63
Sig strikes attempted
67
56
Total strikes landed
51
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.7
4.0
Takedowns attempted
4.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
150s
Control time
196s
Method
Decision
69%
KO/TKO
13%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Joe Lauzon
28-17
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
—
W
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2
—
L
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
—
Blue corner
W1
Curt Warburton
14-6
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
—
L
UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama
—