Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Matt Brown
John Howard
46%
54%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 3"
72"
30
Age
Δ 2y
28
26-20
Career record
Δ 7 pp
24-14
L3
Current streak
L2
3
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Brown: 38 sig / 3 TD ·
Howard: 20 sig / 5 TD
Matt Brown
John Howard
30
Sig strikes landed
23
54
Sig strikes attempted
45
47
Total strikes landed
44
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.7
1.3
Takedowns attempted
4.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
69s
Control time
182s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
41%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Matt Brown
"The Immortal"
26-20
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 0-3
Last 3
L
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
—
L
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
—
L
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
—
Blue corner
L2
John Howard
"Doomsday"
24-14
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—
L
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
—
W
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—