Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Christian Morecraft
Matt Mitrione
65%
35%
Why
81"
Reach
Δ 1"
82"
25
Age
Δ 8y
33
9-3
Career record
Δ 3 pp
13-5
W1
Current streak
W3
2
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Morecraft: 17 sig / 2 TD ·
Mitrione: 37 sig / 0 TD
Christian Morecraft
Matt Mitrione
22
Sig strikes landed
31
60
Sig strikes attempted
48
30
Total strikes landed
53
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.2
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.00
Knockdowns
0.50
101s
Control time
81s
Method
Decision
25%
KO/TKO
64%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Christian Morecraft
9-3
Career record
Height
78"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—
L
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—
Blue corner
W3
Matt Mitrione
13-5
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
82"
Stance
Switch
Age
33
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
W
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—
W
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—