Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Charlie Brenneman
Rick Story
51%
49%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
30
Age
Δ 4y
27
20-8
Career record
Δ 2 pp
20-9
W1
Current streak
W5
3
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Brenneman: 11 sig / 5 TD ·
Story: 17 sig / 2 TD
Charlie Brenneman
Rick Story
28
Sig strikes landed
38
66
Sig strikes attempted
96
49
Total strikes landed
70
2.0
Takedowns landed
1.3
5.4
Takedowns attempted
4.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
181s
Control time
179s
Method
Decision
73%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Charlie Brenneman
"The Spaniard"
20-8
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
L
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi
—
Blue corner
W5
Rick Story
"The Horror"
20-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP …
—
W
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—
W
UFC 112: Invincible
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—