Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Cheick Kongo
Pat Barry
91%
9%
Why
82"
Reach
Δ 8"
74"
36
Age
Δ 4y
32
27-10-3
Career record
Δ 11 pp
9-7
D1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Kongo: 10 sig / 0 TD ·
Barry: 8 sig / 0 TD
Cheick Kongo
Pat Barry
50
Sig strikes landed
21
107
Sig strikes attempted
44
91
Total strikes landed
31
2.0
Takedowns landed
-0.3
5.3
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.50
324s
Control time
12s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
D1
Cheick Kongo
27-10-3
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
82"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
2 fights · 1-0
Last 2
D
UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama
—
W
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—
Blue corner
W1
Pat Barry
"HD"
9-7
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
L
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—