Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Wanderlei Silva
Chris Leben
75%
25%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
35
Age
Δ 4y
31
36-13-1
Career record
Δ 7 pp
22-12
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Silva: 3 sig / 0 TD ·
Leben: 9 sig / 0 TD
Wanderlei Silva
Chris Leben
35
Sig strikes landed
43
104
Sig strikes attempted
98
47
Total strikes landed
49
0.2
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.0
Takedowns attempted
4.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
39s
Control time
134s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Wanderlei Silva
"The Axe Murderer"
36-13-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez
—
Blue corner
L1
Chris Leben
"The Crippler"
22-12
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC 125: Resolution
—
W
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lidd…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—