Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tito Ortiz
Ryan Bader
18%
82%
Why
74"
Reach
74"
36
Age
Δ 8y
28
19-13-1
Career record
Δ 22 pp
23-6
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Ortiz: 6 sig / 0 TD ·
Bader: 4 sig / 0 TD
Tito Ortiz
Ryan Bader
24
Sig strikes landed
41
68
Sig strikes attempted
102
41
Total strikes landed
64
0.1
Takedowns landed
1.7
1.6
Takedowns attempted
4.5
0.50
Knockdowns
0.40
21s
Control time
204s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Tito Ortiz
"The People's Champ"
19-13-1
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—
Blue corner
L1
Ryan Bader
"Darth"
23-6
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
—
W
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—
W
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez
—