Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Melvin Guillard
Shane Roller
79%
21%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
28
Age
Δ 4y
32
33-18-2
Career record
Δ 1 pp
12-7
W4
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Guillard: 17 sig / 0 TD ·
Roller: 1 sig / 0 TD
Melvin Guillard
Shane Roller
39
Sig strikes landed
28
86
Sig strikes attempted
89
41
Total strikes landed
35
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.8
0.4
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.90
Knockdowns
0.10
24s
Control time
103s
Method
Decision
22%
KO/TKO
68%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Melvin Guillard
"The Young Assassin"
33-18-2
(3 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
W
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—
W
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
—
W
UFC 109: Relentless
—
Blue corner
W1
Shane Roller
12-7
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
—