Back to The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesnar vs Team dos Santos Finale
Prelims1 Welterweight

Clay Harvison vs Justin Edwards

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesnar vs Team dos Santos Finale ·Pearl Concert Theater
Previous fight Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Clay Harvison
Justin Edwards
62% 38%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
31
Age
Δ 2y
28

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Harvison: 57 sig / 1 TD · Edwards: 42 sig / 7 TD
Clay Harvison
Justin Edwards
38
Sig strikes landed
33
79
Sig strikes attempted
70
54
Total strikes landed
49
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
148s
Control time
117s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Clay Harvison

"Bushwacker"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner

Justin Edwards

"Fast Eddy"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28