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Prelims1 Welterweight

Ryan McGillivray vs Shamar Bailey

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesnar vs Team dos Santos Finale ·Pearl Concert Theater
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Ryan McGillivray
Shamar Bailey
90% 10%
Why
25
Age
Δ 4y
29

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
McGillivray: 19 sig / 0 TD · Bailey: 33 sig / 5 TD
Ryan McGillivray
Shamar Bailey
49
Sig strikes landed
42
109
Sig strikes attempted
105
93
Total strikes landed
55
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.3
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
184s
Control time
97s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
19%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Ryan McGillivray

"The Kid"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Age
25
Blue corner

Shamar Bailey

0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29