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Prelims1 Featherweight

Josh Grispi vs George Roop

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesnar vs Team dos Santos Finale ·Pearl Concert Theater
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Josh Grispi
George Roop
83% 17%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
23
Age
Δ 7y
30
14-6
Career record
Δ 20 pp
15-14-1
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Grispi: 11 sig / 4 TD · Roop: 91 sig / 0 TD
Josh Grispi
George Roop
36
Sig strikes landed
28
67
Sig strikes attempted
55
63
Total strikes landed
43
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.7
4.0
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
232s
Control time
96s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
22%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Josh Grispi

"The Fluke"
14-6
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 125: Resolution
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Blue corner
L1

George Roop

15-14-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
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