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Danny Downes vs Jeremy Stephens

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesnar vs Team dos Santos Finale ·Pearl Concert Theater
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Danny Downes
Jeremy Stephens
55% 45%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
25
Age
Δ 0y
25
—
Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Downes: 32 sig / 0 TD · Stephens: 55 sig / 6 TD
Danny Downes
Jeremy Stephens
33
Sig strikes landed
49
90
Sig strikes attempted
105
38
Total strikes landed
66
0.5
Takedowns landed
2.0
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
61s
Control time
134s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Danny Downes

0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner
W1

Jeremy Stephens

"Lil' Heathen"
30-23 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database 3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W UFC 125: Resolution
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L UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
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W UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
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