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Ed Herman vs Tim Credeur

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesnar vs Team dos Santos Finale ·Pearl Concert Theater
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Ed Herman
Tim Credeur
70% 30%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
31
Age
Δ 3y
34

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Herman: 11 sig / 0 TD · Credeur: 11 sig / 0 TD
Ed Herman
Tim Credeur
39
Sig strikes landed
32
82
Sig strikes attempted
75
55
Total strikes landed
50
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
121s
Control time
125s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Ed Herman

"Short Fuse"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner

Tim Credeur

0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34