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Fabio Maldonado vs Kyle Kingsbury

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesnar vs Team dos Santos Finale ·Pearl Concert Theater
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Fabio Maldonado
Kyle Kingsbury
75% 25%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 4"
79"
31
Age
Δ 2y
29
24-11
Career record
Δ 2 pp
12-6
W1
Current streak
W2
1
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Maldonado: 78 sig / 2 TD · Kingsbury: 95 sig / 5 TD
Fabio Maldonado
Kyle Kingsbury
53
Sig strikes landed
48
104
Sig strikes attempted
114
77
Total strikes landed
63
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.7
4.1
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
164s
Control time
69s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Fabio Maldonado

"Caipira de Aco"
24-11
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama
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Blue corner
W2

Kyle Kingsbury

"Kingsbu"
12-6 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
—
W UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs P…
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