Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Dustin Poirier
Jason Young
88%
12%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
22
Age
Δ 3y
25
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Poirier: 77 sig / 5 TD ·
Young: 57 sig / 0 TD
Dustin Poirier
Jason Young
50
Sig strikes landed
36
94
Sig strikes attempted
89
79
Total strikes landed
56
2.3
Takedowns landed
0.6
4.1
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
215s
Control time
56s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Dustin Poirier
"The Diamond"
31-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
22
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 125: Resolution
—
Blue corner
Jason Young
"Shotgun"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25