Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Joey Beltran
Aaron Rosa
31%
69%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
77"
30
Age
Δ 2y
28
L2
Current streak
—
4
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Beltran: 88 sig / 1 TD ·
Rosa: 73 sig / 0 TD
Joey Beltran
Aaron Rosa
43
Sig strikes landed
58
104
Sig strikes attempted
123
68
Total strikes landed
70
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.2
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
155s
Control time
91s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Joey Beltran
"The Mexicutioner"
17-15
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
L
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—
W
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—
W
UFC 109: Relentless
—
Blue corner
Aaron Rosa
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28