Prelims2
Featherweight
Darren Elkins vs Michihiro Omigawa
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
·Rogers Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Darren Elkins
Michihiro Omigawa
90%
10%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 3"
68"
27
Age
Δ 8y
36
29-13
Career record
Δ 18 pp
17-15-1
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Elkins: 78 sig / 1 TD ·
Omigawa: 65 sig / 1 TD
Darren Elkins
Michihiro Omigawa
57
Sig strikes landed
27
214
Sig strikes attempted
74
68
Total strikes landed
53
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.7
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
68s
Control time
143s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Darren Elkins
"The Damage"
29-13
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
—
W
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—
Blue corner
L1
Michihiro Omigawa
17-15-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
—