Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Jesse Bongfeldt
Chris Weidman
59%
41%
Why
31
Age
Δ 4y
27
16-5-2
Career record
Δ 2 pp
17-8
D1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Bongfeldt: 5 sig / 0 TD ·
Weidman: 7 sig / 1 TD
Jesse Bongfeldt
Chris Weidman
41
Sig strikes landed
43
84
Sig strikes attempted
104
53
Total strikes landed
66
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.9
2.1
Takedowns attempted
4.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
71s
Control time
155s
Method
Decision
75%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
D1
Jesse Bongfeldt
"Water"
16-5-2
Career record
Height
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 0-0
Last 1
D
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—
Blue corner
W1
Chris Weidman
"The All-American"
17-8
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
—