Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Yves Edwards
Sam Stout
76%
24%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 3"
70"
35
Age
Δ 8y
27
43-22-1
Career record
Δ 3 pp
21-12-1
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Edwards: 14 sig / 1 TD ·
Stout: 13 sig / 0 TD
Yves Edwards
Sam Stout
51
Sig strikes landed
46
140
Sig strikes attempted
128
61
Total strikes landed
67
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.6
5.8
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
156s
Control time
53s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Yves Edwards
43-22-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs P…
—
Blue corner
W1
Sam Stout
"Hands of Stone"
21-12-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—
L
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—
W
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
—