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Main Heavyweight

Dave Herman vs Jon Olav Einemo

UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin ·Rogers Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Dave Herman
Jon Olav Einemo
90% 10%
Why
27
Age
Δ 9y
36

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Herman: 55 sig / 1 TD · Einemo: 34 sig / 1 TD
Dave Herman
Jon Olav Einemo
40
Sig strikes landed
27
79
Sig strikes attempted
60
61
Total strikes landed
45
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.3
1.3
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
159s
Control time
74s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
57%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Dave Herman

0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner

Jon Olav Einemo

"The Viking"
0-0
Career record
Height
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36