Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Mark Munoz
Demian Maia
37%
63%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
33
Age
Δ 0y
34
15-6
Career record
Δ 1 pp
29-11
W2
Current streak
W2
5
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Munoz: 44 sig / 3 TD ·
Maia: 32 sig / 0 TD
Mark Munoz
Demian Maia
22
Sig strikes landed
26
53
Sig strikes attempted
59
39
Total strikes landed
41
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.3
Takedowns attempted
4.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
107s
Control time
152s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Mark Munoz
"The Filipino Wrecking Machine"
15-6
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
—
W
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
—
L
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
—
W
UFC 112: Invincible
—
W
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
—
Blue corner
W2
Demian Maia
29-11
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP …
—
W
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2
—
L
UFC 112: Invincible
—
W
UFC 109: Relentless
—