Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Vagner Rocha
Donald Cerrone
37%
63%
Why
73"
Reach
73"
29
Age
Δ 1y
28
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Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Rocha: 46 sig / 1 TD ·
Cerrone: 86 sig / 0 TD
Vagner Rocha
Donald Cerrone
28
Sig strikes landed
38
64
Sig strikes attempted
81
44
Total strikes landed
55
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.5
2.0
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
111s
Control time
171s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
38%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Vagner Rocha
"Ceara"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner
W1
Donald Cerrone
"Cowboy"
37-17
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
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