Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Kenny Florian
Diego Nunes
41%
59%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 7"
67"
35
Age
Δ 6y
28
14-7
Career record
Δ 7 pp
20-7
L1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Florian: 42 sig / 4 TD ·
Nunes: 31 sig / 2 TD
Kenny Florian
Diego Nunes
39
Sig strikes landed
52
112
Sig strikes attempted
104
62
Total strikes landed
71
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.0
4.0
Takedowns attempted
1.9
-0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
133s
Control time
126s
Method
Decision
80%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Kenny Florian
"KenFlo"
14-7
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi
—
Blue corner
W1
Diego Nunes
"The Gun"
20-7
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 125: Resolution
—