Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Shane Carwin
Junior Dos Santos
43%
57%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 3"
77"
36
Age
Δ 9y
27
12-3
Career record
Δ 9 pp
22-9
L1
Current streak
W3
2
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Carwin: 20 sig / 1 TD ·
Dos Santos: 88 sig / 2 TD
Shane Carwin
Junior Dos Santos
41
Sig strikes landed
56
102
Sig strikes attempted
120
54
Total strikes landed
69
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.2
Takedowns attempted
0.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
88s
Control time
29s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Shane Carwin
"The Engineer"
12-3
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
—
W
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
—
Blue corner
W3
Junior Dos Santos
"Cigano"
22-9
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—
W
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—
W
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
—