Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tristan Arenal
Tommy Petersen
84%
16%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Tristan Arenal
Tommy Petersen
43
Sig strikes landed
41
101
Sig strikes attempted
99
58
Total strikes landed
50
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
139s
Control time
140s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Tristan Arenal
0-0
Career record
Age
26
Blue corner
Tommy Petersen
0-0
Career record