Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Adam Antolin
Ronald Carillo
80%
20%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Adam Antolin
Ronald Carillo
44
Sig strikes landed
38
95
Sig strikes attempted
89
65
Total strikes landed
50
1.1
Takedowns landed
3.2
1.8
Takedowns attempted
5.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
149s
Control time
174s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
37%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Adam Antolin
"Captain Chaos"
0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner
Ronald Carillo
0-0
Career record