Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Bobby Escalante
Raul Sandoval
76%
24%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Bobby Escalante
Raul Sandoval
37
Sig strikes landed
42
93
Sig strikes attempted
90
52
Total strikes landed
55
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
155s
Control time
164s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Bobby Escalante
0-0
Career record
Blue corner
Raul Sandoval
0-0
Career record